Fleta becoming the next Fergus?

[Username]

I remember Edern w/ blessed items, his % got lower. :C

[tacundavid]

Take a class in statistics and probability.
No need to say anymore. Honestly.

[Eliirae]

Take a class in statistics and probability.
No need to say anymore. Honestly.

What does that have to do with failing 10 times in a row with an NPC who has a 95% repair rate with blessed equipment? The blessing itself boosts yourself up to what, 97-98% success rate? That's a 2-3% chance to fail. If you've taken statistics you know 2-3% is a low percent, and that a 97-98% success rate means that the vast majority of the time (like..97-98% of the time!) you won't fail 10 times in a row.

It still happens in Mabi. Pretty sure Mabi has some formulas messed up somewhere, or the success rate is much lower than advertised.

[Zyrus]

What does that have to do with failing 10 times in a row with an NPC who has a 95% repair rate with blessed equipment? The blessing itself boosts yourself up to what, 97-98% success rate? That's a 2-3% chance to fail. If you've taken statistics you know 2-3% is a low percent, and that a 97-98% success rate means that the vast majority of the time (like..97-98% of the time!) you won't fail 10 times in a row.

It still happens in Mabi. Pretty sure Mabi has some formulas messed up somewhere, or the success rate is much lower than advertised.

The reason is that in an infinate sample size all possibilities will eventually happen. Which means that on a roulette wheel eventually it will land on the same number 15 times in a row and fleta will fail 10 times in a row. Its a rare possibility and if you consider the amount of repairs being done a day its not impossible although improbable for a strange event to happen.

[tacundavid]

What does that have to do with failing 10 times in a row with an NPC who has a 95% repair rate with blessed equipment? The blessing itself boosts yourself up to what, 97-98% success rate? That's a 2-3% chance to fail. If you've taken statistics you know 2-3% is a low percent, and that a 97-98% success rate means that the vast majority of the time (like..97-98% of the time!) you won't fail 10 times in a row.

It still happens in Mabi. Pretty sure Mabi has some formulas messed up somewhere, or the success rate is much lower than advertised.

People win national lotteries at a chance of 175.2 million to 1 which is equivalent to 0.0000000059%. Your point?

[frozenwilderness]

What does that have to do with failing 10 times in a row with an NPC who has a 95% repair rate with blessed equipment? The blessing itself boosts yourself up to what, 97-98% success rate? That's a 2-3% chance to fail. If you've taken statistics you know 2-3% is a low percent, and that a 97-98% success rate means that the vast majority of the time (like..97-98% of the time!) you won't fail 10 times in a row.

It still happens in Mabi. Pretty sure Mabi has some formulas messed up somewhere, or the success rate is much lower than advertised.

ok ok

so who do you know has failed 10 points in a row with a blessed item at 95%?

i would like to know this

[Fabian]

The reason is that in an infinate sample size all possibilities will eventually happen. Which means that on a roulette wheel eventually it will land on the same number 15 times in a row and fleta will fail 10 times in a row. Its a rare possibility and if you consider the amount of repairs being done a day its not impossible although improbable for a strange event to happen.

I've yet to see anyone with "the Friend of Ferghus" title though. Is he special or something?:C

[Aubog007]

ok ok

so who do you know has failed 10 points in a row with a blessed item at 95%?

i would like to know this

I failed 3 times at 99% in a row, that 1/1,000,000 chance has never happened to me ever again.

This reminds me of Civ4/Civ5 where i gambled a .1% chance victory rate against another unit and won.

[Zyrus]

I failed 3 times at 99% in a row, that 1/1,000,000 chance has never happened to me ever again.

This reminds me of Civ4/Civ5 where i gambled a .1% chance victory rate against another unit and won.

Mounted archer versus fusion tank?

[Juno]

She has one bad week and you're comparing her to Ferghus?

Harsh~