Weapon upgrade stone simulation

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Lapitaga wrote on 2011-01-28 00:43

I was curious to see how much I can expect to pay for a fully upgraded level 3 red/blue stone weapon, so I wrote a program to simulate upgrading a weapon on my calculator (this was easy since the first upgrade is 100%, and the others are 50%)

I wrote another program to simulate 300 weapons being upgraded, here are the stats:

average amount of stones needed : 12.01

minimum stones: 3

max stones: 66 (ouch)

standard deviation: 11.058

median amount of stones: 8
(Median is a better measure of center in this case as the data skews right because of values like 66)

This means you expect to obtain 8 stones and pay 240k for a fully upgraded blue/red stone weapon
Roy Mustang wrote on 2011-01-28 00:55

I usually wait until I have at least 8-10 stones before I attempt any upgrade. I got lucky on my Glory Sword. Got level 3 with only 3 stones. Lucky Streak in tail :lol:
Zack wrote on 2011-01-28 00:55

Pretty close to what I had lol
Sleeperdial wrote on 2011-01-28 01:27

Quote from Lapitaga;307189:
I was curious to see how much I can expect to pay for a fully upgraded level 3 red/blue stone weapon, so I wrote a program to simulate upgrading a weapon on my calculator (this was easy since the first upgrade is 100%, and the others are 50%)

I wrote another program to simulate 300 weapons being upgraded, here are the stats:

average amount of stones needed : 12.01

minimum stones: 3

max stones: 66 (ouch)

standard deviation: 11.058

median amount of stones: 8
(Median is a better measure of center in this case as the data skews right because of values like 66)

This means you expect to obtain 8 stones and pay 240k for a fully upgraded blue/red stone weapon

Thats how it would be if the values are actually what they say they are. but anyone who does production knows that 99% chance = 20% chance.
Valkyrie wrote on 2011-01-28 01:41

Quote from Sleeperdial;307300:
Thats how it would be if the values are actually what they say they are. but anyone who does production knows that 99% chance = 20% chance.

lol no.

I think waiting set amount of time between upgrades decreases the chance of a failure (STRICTLY speaking not in math, but common sense).

So...if you flip a coin right after the other...chances are very slim you'll get 3 heads in a row.

But flipping a coin only once gives you a higher %.

Yes, I know, this sounds stupid, but then you wonder why people prepare 3-4 stamp swords before putting spike on it; because the chances of getting 4 fails in a row is a LOT lower than to get 1 fail in 1, even if they all have the same chance of failing.
Lapitaga wrote on 2011-01-28 02:43

Quote from Valkyrie;307346:
lol no.

I think waiting set amount of time between upgrades decreases the chance of a failure (STRICTLY speaking not in math, but common sense).

So...if you flip a coin right after the other...chances are very slim you'll get 3 heads in a row.

But flipping a coin only once gives you a higher %.

Yes, I know, this sounds stupid, but then you wonder why people prepare 3-4 stamp swords before putting spike on it; because the chances of getting 4 fails in a row is a LOT lower than to get 1 fail in 1, even if they all have the same chance of failing.

Math > common sense (at least with probabilities)
waiting until your chances of at least one success are quite high won't do anything but stall the results. However, it could be better for you psychologically as fails will not be as important to you if there is still an opportunity for success. But... with the upgrades you're just as likely to have your fails cancel out all your successes as you are to make all your progress. There's no reason to save up stones.

EDIT: This is hypocritical, but I try to repair my weapons as soon as possible for fear that I'll lose durability if I waited too long. That and I don't want to get stuck with broken weapons, but I feel like I need to go repair stuff if just 2 points are knocked off.
gentrone wrote on 2011-01-28 02:49

Quote from Valkyrie;307346:
lol no.

I think waiting set amount of time between upgrades decreases the chance of a failure (STRICTLY speaking not in math, but common sense).

So...if you flip a coin right after the other...chances are very slim you'll get 3 heads in a row.

But flipping a coin only once gives you a higher %.

Yes, I know, this sounds stupid, but then you wonder why people prepare 3-4 stamp swords before putting spike on it; because the chances of getting 4 fails in a row is a LOT lower than to get 1 fail in 1, even if they all have the same chance of failing.

Although not very rational, I believe in this.