How Repairs work.

• Retard wrote on 2011-02-19 18:49
  I'm lazy so I don't feel like rewriting this. But if you read it, you can basically get the gyst of why Edern fails so much (Or not so much)
  
  "Thats not how the system works. Lets say you repair a 10 point weapon at 98% edern. That means you have 2 percent chance of breaking a point off your item. So if you have a 10 point weapong, you only need to repair it 5 times for 1 point to break off.
  
  basically, you have a 1/5 chance of breaking a point off which is 20%. Realistically you only have 80% chance of succeeding. With Ferghus, you will statistically have 100% (Probably more like 99%) chance of breaking a point off of a 10+ Durb weapon and you have a 0% chance (Probably 1%) of not breaking it.
  
  You see people get so confused these days. They think 98% of the time they will have a perfect repair with Edern... No, it's 98% of the time 1 point will be safe not all points."
• Retard wrote on 2011-02-19 18:51
  Dont read the last blurb, it doesnt really make sense XD
• Sunureu13 wrote on 2011-02-19 20:00
  Uh.. 49/50 is not 80%. if you fully repair a 10 dur weapon 5 times, statistically you'll break one point.
  
  Let's do the math.
  
  10 dur x 5 full repairs = 50.
  1 fail out of 50 repairs = 49.
  49/50 = 98%.
• Shirayuki wrote on 2011-02-19 20:01

  Quote from Sunureu13;341712:

  Uh.. 49/50 is not 80%. if you fully repair a 10 dur weapon 5 times, statistically you'll break one point.
  
  Let's do the math.
  
  10 dur x 5 full repairs = 50.
  1 fail out of 50 repairs = 49.
  49/50 = 98%.

  
  
  I think he's going by the logic of 2%+9(2%)=20%
  
  So he says it's a 20% chance of failure or something.
• Sunureu13 wrote on 2011-02-19 20:05
  That's not how it works though .-.
• Shirayuki wrote on 2011-02-19 20:08

  Quote from Sunureu13;341726:

  That's not how it works though .-.

  
  
  I fail at math so I'm just trying to see how he did it.
  
  Edit: I see repairs as individual events, do the previous repair doesn't depend on the other and vice versa, so you have a 98% chance to fail at any given repair.
  
  /sunu's post wins in my eyes
• Chihaya wrote on 2011-02-19 20:17

  Quote from Shirayuki;341729:

  /sunu's post wins in my eyes

  
  
  QFT.
  
  I don't even understand your calculations, personally XD
  
  Put in some signs in thar ;D
• Cathaoir wrote on 2011-02-19 20:53
  I'm not gonna have an argument about this again, but below is how it works.
  
  

  Quote from Cathaoir;341589:

  But also with how the repair system works, its 99% per point, so each point has a 99% chance to succeed, so only a 1% chance to fail. That is per point and it is not added up. So say I repair 20 dura each time, each of those 20 dura points have a 99% chance to succeed. So first point has a 99% chance, the 2nd point has a 99% chance and so on.

  
  
  

  Quote from Cathaoir;341690:

  Exactly my point though. In Mabi, there is no expected outcome it is all isolated incidences. No matter what you got on the previous point, be it fail or success, the next one will always have that fixed rate. If you are doing something at a 50% rate on Mabi, you can have 10 successes in a row, but the next one will still be a 50% rate of succeeding.

• Nyo wrote on 2011-02-19 21:25
  Use statistics.
  
  (Each "x REPAIRS" is contained; the percentage sum of each equals 100%)
  
  1 REPAIR
  1 success = 98%
  1 fail = 2%
  
  2 REPAIRS
  2 successes = 98% * 98% = 96.04%
  1 success and 1 fail, or 1 fail and 1 success = (98% * 2%) + (2% * 98%) = 3.92%
  2 fails = 2% * 2% = 0.04%
  
  3 REPAIRS
  3 successes = 94.1192%
  2 successes, 1 fail = 5.7624%
  2 fails, 1 success = 0.1176%
  3 fails = 0.0008%
  
  4 REPAIRS
  4S = 92.236816%
  3S 1F = 7.529536%
  2S 2F = 0.230496%
  1S 3F = 0.003136%
  4F = 0.000016%
  
  10 REPAIRS
  10S = 81.7072806887547%
  9S1F = 16.674955242603%
  1.53137344064721%
  0.0833400511916851%
  0.00297643039970304%
  0.000072892173053952%
  0.00000123966280704%
  0.00000001445670912%
  0.00000000011063808%
  0.00000000000050176%
  0.000000000000001024%
• Phanterz wrote on 2011-02-20 19:26
  This is why you bless at 98%.
• Phunkie wrote on 2011-02-20 19:30
  This is horribly wrong.
  
  It's (Base Percent)^(Number of times you repair) for getting all the repairs successful.
  
  Say you repair at Nerys (95%) five times (your weapon is at 0/5 durability). Each point is 95% success. But five points is:
  
  0.95^5 = .7737
  
  Basically almost 77.4% of getting all those points repaired without fail.
• Andy-Buddy wrote on 2011-02-20 19:40
  Darn, I had a spreadsheet of this a while back, too. :l
  
  Here it is.
  
  Repair.xls
  
  Notes: The blessing stat is unconfirmed. leave it on no for an accurate representation.
• MrpewX2 wrote on 2011-02-20 21:48
  Blessing halfs the chances of fail, I worked the numbers with ferg
• Phanterz wrote on 2011-02-23 00:54

  Quote from MrpewX2;343140:

  Blessing halfs the chances of fail, I worked the numbers with ferg

  
  
  confirm by popular belief
• Andy-Buddy wrote on 2011-02-23 00:55

  Quote from MrpewX2;343140:

  Blessing halfs the chances of fail, I worked the numbers with ferg

  
  
  This is how I set my calculations in the Excel spreadsheet, so take that how you will.