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BobYoMeowMeow wrote on 2012-11-05 17:39
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
Nate Silver is a statistician whose prediction and analysis software for Major League Baseball players has been sold
He had correctly predicted the electoral vote outcome of 2008 for 49 out of 50 states (in March), except for Indiana which went to Obama instead of McCain and the votes in that state had only 0.9% more for Obama.
He also correctly predicted the outcome of the all 35 senate races that year
As of this posting, the popular votes are projected to be close with Obama having a slight lead but the electoral votes are much different if the states vote for the candidates they're leaning towards.
Ohio is the most important swing state for Romney to win.
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Kingofrunes wrote on 2012-11-05 21:23
It's going to be an incredibly tight race. Just like every other past election. I don't think the US has had a full sweeping election since President Regan got elected :/
Then again I wasn't old enough to know anything about politics or the government when Clinton was president. The first Presidental Election I became aware of was the 2000 one with Bush vs. Al Gore, 2004 with Bush vs. Kerry, 2008 McKain vs Obama and now 2012 Obama vs. Romney
The 1996 one I was in a troubled home during and I don't think elementary school taught much of politics at the time. 1992 I was only 4 years old :/
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Sumpfkraut wrote on 2012-11-05 21:49
I'm only gonna believe that when I see his exact forecasts as they were on the date he made them, and with proof that they are not falsified in the non-scientific sense. He'd be the first thoroughly accurate analyst in the history of mankind.
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BobYoMeowMeow wrote on 2012-11-06 06:41
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Nithiel wrote on 2012-11-06 07:01
If Ohio lets Romney win I will be more ashamed of my state then when Bush won. ):
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Joker wrote on 2012-11-06 07:45
Cool Factoid... the study of statistical analysis in use of sports and factoring in human win/loss and ratios is called "Cyber metrics" (thanks to the Series Numbers) lol
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BobYoMeowMeow wrote on 2012-11-06 08:05
Jesus christ, the guy is still writing articles analyzing polls at it's 3 AM in New York
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Sinned wrote on 2012-11-07 04:38
So far, it looks scarily accurate.
Why write for political statistics when you can make a living through horse racing with that amount of accuracy :v?
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RealityBreak wrote on 2012-11-07 04:39
It doesn't take a genius to know who's gonna win the presidential =/
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BobYoMeowMeow wrote on 2012-11-07 04:41
Quote from Sinned;976878:
So far, it looks scarily accurate.
Why write for political statistics when you can make a living through horse racing with that amount of accuracy :v?
Nate Silver is already rich
He actually made a living off playing poker
and now he's been hired by the New York Times.
Quote from RealityBreak;976879:
It doesn't take a genius to know who's gonna win the presidential =/
but look at which states he predicted Obama and Romney would win.
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RealityBreak wrote on 2012-11-07 04:56
Quote from BobYoMeowMeow;976881:
Nate Silver is already rich
He actually made a living off playing poker
and now he's been hired by the New York Times.
but look at which states he predicted Obama and Romney would win.
*looks*
He got pretty much all of 'em. But we're still waiting on Florida. We've been waiting on Florida...
[Image: http://puu.sh/1nn9w]
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BobYoMeowMeow wrote on 2012-11-07 16:50