These percentages are lies

• Cookieknight wrote on 2014-07-12 20:57
  Today I asked someone to burn a color enchant (had 5 of them) the success rate was 75% and it literally failed like 4 times on 75%! Also the other day i went to repair buy knux and the success rate was 98% at 2 points were broken. FIX YOUR PERCENTAGES NEXON!
• DennouNeko wrote on 2014-07-12 21:07

  Quote from Cookieknight;1231809:

  Today I asked someone to burn a color enchant (had 5 of them) the success rate was 75% and it literally failed like 4 times on 75%! Also the other day i went to repair buy knux and the success rate was 98% at 2 points were broken. FIX YOUR PERCENTAGES NEXON!

  
  
  You know... Nobody guarantees you that with 50% chance of failing every second one will succeed. The percentages would match if you did series of at least 10,000 attempts. It's statistic, not a fixed pattern.
• Odinwolfe wrote on 2014-07-12 21:21

  Quote from DennouNeko;1231811:

  You know... Nobody guarantees you that with 50% chance of failing every second one will succeed. The percentages would match if you did series of at least 10,000 attempts. It's statistic, not a fixed pattern.

  
  
  I've had hilariously inaccurate experiences with enchanting, ranging from Failing fleet 9 times in a row, breaking 5m in high grade boots.
  To landing r3 on first try with elite powder, on a not-thursday.
  
  Everyone knows Mabi percentages are bullshit.
  There are plenty of examples out there to simply write nexon %'s off as retarded.
• Fracture wrote on 2014-07-12 21:45
  Law of large numbers. Learn it, live it, love it. For the low amount of runs you make on a given percentage, statistical anomalies are very common. That's the only reason it's possible to get S/R ranks on a weapon.
• Entia wrote on 2014-07-12 21:50

  Quote from Cookieknight;1231809:

  Today I asked someone to burn a color enchant (had 5 of them) the success rate was 75% and it literally failed like 4 times on 75%! Also the other day i went to repair buy knux and the success rate was 98% at 2 points were broken. FIX YOUR PERCENTAGES NEXON!

  
  
  Please read this brilliant thread by Rydian titled "Probability And You". It will answer all your frustrations.
• Username wrote on 2014-07-13 01:19
  Law of Mabinogi.
  1) RNG is god.
  
  Its just unlucky when the game picks that 2% or 25% each time you generate another chance.
  
  Don't blame Nexon when its most likely DevCat's programing. If said numbers are wrong.
• ironwoman wrote on 2014-07-13 13:43
  Another complaint about percentage in the game, what a fucking surprise.
  
  What did you expect out of RNG game?
• FallenDanny wrote on 2014-07-13 17:36
  Kind of off topic, but mabinogi has more RNG than any other game I've played. I've used over 50 red ups on my guns and have never seen +3 which I guess makes sense but it's suuuuuuuch a turn off. I'd rather use a stack of reds and it be guaranteed but I guess all mmos have some amount of RNG, I just wish mabi had significantly less of it. Ignore my ranting if it bothers you. @_@ I apologize
• Iyasenu wrote on 2014-07-13 18:17
  Huhu, as for the times where the % actually IS lying...
  
  Success rate bonus showing being applied during Milling (99% to make flour/bean powder), but actually being lower than that (seems around ~75/85%). Almost makes me wish Milling was an actual skill.
  
  
  Or in a bit different way, being in a party or having Harvest song/rain casting up, and then the conditions being changed midway through crafting (party empties, harvest song/rain expires), it won't update with the new, actual success rate until the recipe/crafting window is updated, either by choosing a new recipe or by reopening the window (it will still say the % rate prior to those bonuses going away)
• Fracture wrote on 2014-07-13 21:19

  Quote from FallenDanny;1231970:

  Kind of off topic, but mabinogi has more RNG than any other game I've played. I've used over 50 red ups on my guns and have never seen +3 which I guess makes sense but it's suuuuuuuch a turn off. I'd rather use a stack of reds and it be guaranteed but I guess all mmos have some amount of RNG, I just wish mabi had significantly less of it. Ignore my ranting if it bothers you. @_@ I apologize

  
  
  RNG is end-game extension. Since Mabinogi doesn't have the periodically raised level cap like many MMOs do, min/maxing requires RNG or everyone would be done too quickly. It's necessary for the game's format.
• Yoorah wrote on 2014-07-13 21:36
  More like it's needed so Nexon can milk more $$$ out of the suckers!
  
  If you could predict the pattern of outcomes based on the %, that would be poor RNG. Then again, you never know if Nexon set the proper % in the code without doing an extensive audit.
• Fracture wrote on 2014-07-13 23:39

  Quote from Yoorah;1231990:

  More like it's needed so Nexon can milk more $$$ out of the suckers!
  
  If you could predict the pattern of outcomes based on the %, that would be poor RNG. Then again, you never know if Nexon set the proper % in the code without doing an extensive audit.

  
  
  I don't doubt that they did code the %s right. Just nobody here understand the law of large numbers. When you do something 5 times, it's not at all out of the question for you to fail all 5 at 80% success rate. If you want to whine and bitch about % success rates, do it 1000 times first.
• Rydian wrote on 2014-07-14 00:27
  Yeah, nobody complains when they finish a part time job at 85% 15 times in a row successfully.
• Yoorah wrote on 2014-07-14 00:46

  Quote from Fracture;1231997:

  I don't doubt that they did code the %s right. Just nobody here understand the law of large numbers. When you do something 5 times, it's not at all out of the question for you to fail all 5 at 80% success rate. If you want to whine and bitch about % success rates, do it 1000 times first.

  
  Oh, for sure (well, I wouldn't put too much faith in Nexon.) I just find it amusing that people complain about not being able to predict the outcome of a random number function.
• Aubog007 wrote on 2014-07-15 09:22
  The only % that i doubt is the Mill in TÄ«r.
  
  Everything else averages out. The Mill doesn't.
  
  
  Conclusion. Fuck making wheat.