Magic is unlike any other skillset in Mabinogi, in the sense of the uniqueness of its damage calculation. Unlike the simple multipliers of classical skills, magic damage calculation involves magic attack coefficients, base damage, full charge damage bonus, and masteries which vary from spell to spell. With the existence of these factors, the effectiveness of blue versus red special upgrades will also vary from spell to spell, which will be covered in this thread.
For the sake of simplicity, I will be using a spreadsheet with these underlying formula to calculate the breakpoint in which average damage of r6 surpasses s6.
Blue - Step 6:
S6 Damage = {([base damage] + ([magic attack coefficient] * [matk + 84])) * [mastery bonus] * [full charge with bonus if applicable]}
S6 Average Damage = {(S6 Damage * 0.7) + (S6 Damage * 2.5 * 0.3)}
Red - Step 6:
R6 Damage = {([base damage] + ([magic attack coefficient] * [matk])) * [mastery bonus] * [full charge with bonus if applicable]}
R6 Average Damage = {(R6 Damage * 0.7) + (R6 Damage * 3.12 * 0.3)}
[SIZE="1"]*Magic Weapon Mastery and Bolt Mastery will be added on mastery bonus multiplicatively.
**Mastery titles, mastery reforges, hebona set effect, ect. will be disregarded, but normally will stack additively to their respective masteries. Combo cards will also be ignored.
***Balance will be assumed to be 100%.
****All spells + masteries are assumed to be rank 1.[/SIZE]
The “R6>S6 MATK†will list my results for each spell, which represents the MATK at which average damage of red special upgrade at step 6 surpasses average damage of blue upgrades at step 6, without including the matk from blue upgrades.
[SIZE="4"]2. Bolt Magic[/SIZE]
i. Icebolt
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/5/50/Icebolt.png]
Base Damage: 80
MATK Coefficient: 0.4
Full Charge Multiplier: 1
R6>S6 MATK: 455
ii. Lightning Bolt
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/f/fd/Lightning_Bolt.png]
Base Damage: 150
MATK Coefficient: 0.6
Full Charge Multiplier: 1.26 (post renovation)
R6>S6 MATK: 405
iii. Firebolt
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/0/0f/Firebolt.png]
Base Damage: 120
MATK Coefficient: 0.5
Full Charge Multiplier: 6.5
R6>S6 MATK: 415
[SIZE="1"](Max damage gained from Battlefield Overture, ego fire wand, enchants, etc. get added to the damage of Firebolt, so the true breakpoint is lower. Ratio of damage gained is ~0.82 max damage point per MATK.) [/SIZE]
[SIZE="4"]3. Intermediate Magic[/SIZE]
i. Ice Spear
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/e/e4/Ice_Spear.png]
Base Damage: 240
MATK Coefficient: 1.4
Full Charge Multiplier: 6.5
R6>S6 MATK: 485
ii. Thunder
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/3/3d/Thunder.png]
Base Damage: 400
MATK Coefficient: 2.1
Full Charge Multiplier: 6
R6>S6 MATK: 465
iii. Fireball
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/a/ae/Fireball.png]
Base Damage: 2400
MATK Coefficient: 12
Full Charge Multiplier: 1
R6>S6 MATK: 455
[SIZE="4"]4. Advanced Magic[/SIZE]
i. Hailstorm
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/8/84/Hail_Storm.png]
Base Damage: 300
MATK Coefficient: 3.2
Full Charge Multiplier: 6.25
R6>S6 MATK: 562
ii. Meteor Strike
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/6/6d/Meteor_Strike.png]
Base Damage: 16200
MATK Coefficient: 30
Full Charge Multiplier: 1
R6>S6 MATK: 115
iii. Lightning Rod
[Image: http://i57.tinypic.com/dq27u8.png]
Base Damage: 465
MATK Coefficient: 12
Full Charge Multiplier: 3
R6>S6 MATK: 617
[SIZE="4"]5. Other Spells [/SIZE]
i. Blaze
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/b/bd/Blaze.png]
MATK Coefficient: 60.75*
R6>S6 MATK: 655
[SIZE="1"]*Blaze does not actually have a matk coefficient of that magnitude, but for the sake of calculations, blaze damage without blaze damage gloves is (MATK * 60.75) at r1 blaze, fully charged with full knockdown. It is essentially the effective coefficient which includes all other base factors. [/SIZE]
ii. Shockwave
[Image: http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/images/6/65/Shockwave.png]
Base Damage: 400
MATK Coefficient: 5
Full Charge Multiplier: 1
R6>S6 MATK: 575
[SIZE="4"]6. Conclusion[/SIZE]
The breakpoints for red upgrades to surpass blue upgrades are relatively high, and have an average of 493 Magic Attack (excluding Meteor Strike and Blaze). With this in mind, it is safe to say that the majority of mages would find blue upgrades to be much more beneficial in terms of average damage.
I want to say this one more time, just in case someone misunderstood. The numbers that I calculated are for average damage, not just crit or just normal. Even if you do not hit the breakpoint, your red critical damage may surpass blue's, but that doesn't mean that reds are better overall.
[SIZE="4"]Extra Section: Practicality[/SIZE]
A friend brought up the practicality regarding my numbers for r6 vs s6 breakpoints. His tested values didn't match.
As far as I can tell, the calculated values will be slightly different than practical values because I omitted many factors like magic protection, magic defense, and balance (if it even exists for magic). My numbers are not completely accurate, because certain factors will vary from situation to situation, however, the break points listed above are accurate enough to be used as reference points though.
Let's take protection and defense into account. For instance, say a hypothetical monster has 50 magic defense and 20% reduction from magic protection. Assume that a hypothetical spell does 500 on s6 critical, and 600 on r6 critical.
[SIZE="1"]S6 Damage: (500-50)*.8 = 360 ||| Damage lost: 28%
R6 Damage: (600-50)*.8 = 440 ||| Damage lost: 26.7%[/SIZE]
More damage is lost with lower critical damage (blue) than with higher critical damage (red) percentage-wise. Therefore, red is more beneficial in certain cases than blue. It will vary from mission to mission, but the general trend of higher defense and protection are in higher difficulties, and with that said, the actual practical break points will vary more in higher difficulties. In another case, using r6, non-crit damage is lower than s6 non-crit, percentage loss in damage will also be different to reflect that. Other times, monsters have elemental affinities or spells will not hit for its highest damage.
Special thanks to Mabinogi World Wiki for coefficients, base damage and images, and to Nation's KR team for renovation data.
Feel free to add or correct anything, and thanks for reading!