Would you pay $10 for a God's Old Treasure?

• X wrote on 2015-06-24 06:55
  A quick post on a holy subject. No, it's not cows... this time. Though Kenero (the cow goddess) did request it.
  
  Falias Treasures are one of those things I just can't seem to get, and thus, have stopped trying. But what are the rates? To find out, I cracked open the ItemDb and looked for the unrestored wave sweeper's entry.
  
  [SPOILER="Itemdb Entry"][CODE]<Mabi_Item ID="12265" DB_StoreType="1" Category="/not_dyeable/falias_before/not_enchantable/" XML="&lt;xml restoration_success=&quot;25&quot;&gt;\n &lt;resotration_item classid=&quot;12266&quot; rate=&quot;1&quot; /&gt;\n &lt;resotration_item classid=&quot;12267&quot; rate=&quot;10&quot; /&gt;\n &lt;resotration_item classid=&quot;12268&quot; rate=&quot;40&quot; /&gt;\n &lt;resotration_item classid=&quot;12269&quot; rate=&quot;200&quot; /&gt;\n&lt;/xml&gt;" Text_Name0="Ocean sweeper (Idea)" Generation="12" Season="1" SubSeason="0" Text_Name1="_LT[xml.itemdb.27100]" Text_Desc1="_LT[xml.itemdb.26929]" Bundle_Type="0" Bundle_Max="0" Price_Buy="10000" Price_Sell="100" Attr_ActionFlag="0" Attr_Type="1001" Attr_Grade="0" File_FieldMesh="item_c3_falias_Oceansweeper_mono_i" File_InvImage="item_falias_Ocean sweeper_mono" Inv_XSize="2" Inv_YSize="2" App_WeaponActionType="0" App_WearType="ss" App_UseC4Layer="False" App_Color1="12" App_Color2="12" App_Color3="12" App_ColorOrder="0" App_SittingType="0" Taste_Beauty="0" Taste_Indivisuality="0" Taste_Luxury="0" Taste_Toughness="0" Taste_Utility="0" Taste_Rarity="0" Taste_Meaning="0" Taste_Adult="0" Taste_Maniac="0" Taste_Anime="0" Taste_Sexy="0" Par_BlockUseFlag="True" Par_UpgradeMax="0" Food_BlockUseFlag="False" />[/CODE][/SPOILER]
  
  If we take the Xml property and run it through an Xml un-escaper, we get
  [CODE]<xml restoration_success="25">
  <resotration_item classid="12266" rate="1" />
  <resotration_item classid="12267" rate="10" />
  <resotration_item classid="12268" rate="40" />
  <resotration_item classid="12269" rate="200" />
  </xml>[/CODE]
  
  - Item 12266 is the Wave Sweeper S, which has (according to item db), +16% speed.
  - 12267 is the Wave Sweeper A, which has +10%.
  - 12268 is Wave Sweeper B, which has +6%.
  - 12269 is Wave Sweeper C, which has +2%.
  
  All other treasures appear to use the same success rates and stuff.
  
  Looking at this data, we can infer how the system works:
  - When you ask Doreen to restore, there's a 25% chance the item won't blow up
  - If it doesn't, the game rolls a random number (up to, but not including 251) to determine what you get.
  - 0 nets you the S version
  - 1-10 and you get the A
  - 11-50 wins you rank B
  - Anything else, you wash out with a C.
  
  This means that the probability of successfully obtaining a Rank S wave sweeper is (1/4) * (1/251) = 0.25 * .004 = 9.96 e -4.
  
  That's 0.000996, or 0.1% (rounded up).
  
  Some perspective: Getting a rank S falias treasure is like taking 1,000 pennies ($10), 999 of which are normal, with one having a tail on both sides, and picking the double tail on your first (and only) try.
  
  If you're more of a tosser, we can calculate the number of consecutive heads required to obtain a rank S treasure like this:
  

  [Image: http://quicklatex.com/cache3/ql_3dbc4e812b06d363305b233991a8c31b_l3.png]

  
  
  Want to try your luck? https://www.random.org/coins/?num=10&cur=60-usd.0025c-pa
  
  
  

  [Image: http://i.imgur.com/6VbchRA.gif]

  
  [SIZE="5"]( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)[/SIZE]
• Kaeporo wrote on 2015-06-24 08:16
  Jesus.
  
  I knew that these had terrible odds but that's just unreal.
• M wrote on 2015-06-24 11:00
  They seem to make some pretty challenging content for ingame players. Then, just when people start grinding it out, they release those 0.1% odd items in gacha lol does anyone even do falias anymore after S-wave sweepers were gacha-tized?
• Osayidan wrote on 2015-06-24 11:37
  I never even equipped an item in the falias treasure slots of my inventory.
  Never seen anything worth having be on sale at any price I'd be willing to pay for what they do.
  This might explain why.
• Kaeporo wrote on 2015-06-24 12:24

  Quote from M;1279824:

  They seem to make some pretty challenging content for ingame players. Then, just when people start grinding it out, they release those 0.1% odd items in gacha lol does anyone even do falias anymore after S-wave sweepers were gacha-tized?

  
  
  This is pretty common.
  
  Content is intentionally released with abhorrent drop rates because players could easily find some way around any difficulty thrown at us. Eventually, the demand for these items spikes after some rewards leak out and Nexon capitalizes on this via gachapon.
  
  In order for them to raise rare item drop rates to a more realistic level, they would need to take measures to ensure people can't just cheese their way to the prizes and that's not a simple matter in the game's current state (10+ years old engine/glitches/etc).
• X wrote on 2015-06-24 14:06
  It has come to my attention that in my sleep deprived state last night, I made a mistake in the probably perspective. I have fixed the OP.
• Rydian wrote on 2015-06-24 14:38
  People have used their fragments to pull me in to help with the game a few times.
  
  Stupid goblet every time.
• X wrote on 2015-06-24 14:55
  Added coin toss info.
• Kenero wrote on 2015-06-24 15:20
  Surprisingly, Wave Sweeper etc. hasn't been released ever since the gachapon from a long time ago.
  
  The prices on these are staggering, almost bordering 30 mil+ in Mari.
  
  With the 0.1% chance it's almost that none is being made.
  
  To make it worse, not only is it 0.1% chance for a SUCCESSFUL Wave Sweeper S, you have to NOT fail in destroying it...
  
  So 30-45% chance of success then ANOTHER 0.1%, you're looking closer to 0.04% true chance.
  
  Terrible.
• X wrote on 2015-06-24 15:24

  Quote from Kenero;1279851:

  Surprisingly, Wave Sweeper etc. hasn't been released ever since the gachapon from a long time ago.
  
  The prices on these are staggering, almost bordering 30 mil+ in Mari.
  
  With the 0.1% chance it's almost that none is being made.
  
  To make it worse, not only is it 0.1% chance for a SUCCESSFUL Wave Sweeper S, you have to NOT fail in destroying it...
  
  So 30-45% chance of success then ANOTHER 0.1%, you're looking closer to 0.04% true chance.
  
  Terrible.

  
  
  Actually the chance of a S wave sweeper by itself is 1/251, or 0.4%. The 1/4 chance of successful restoration is what brings the final rate down to 0.1%
• Kenero wrote on 2015-06-24 15:39

  Quote from X;1279852:

  Actually the chance of a S wave sweeper by itself is 1/251, or 0.4%. The 1/4 chance of successful restoration is what brings the final rate down to 0.1%

  
  
  Celly, the chance to succeed at Dorren is 30% with blue crystals, 45% chance with red crystals. You actually have less than 50% chance to succeed.
• X wrote on 2015-06-24 15:45
  That's what I said xD
  
  1/4 = 25% base, 30% blue, 45% red.
  
  Restoration success is independent of item grade rates. Regardless of success, you have a 0.4% chance to obtain a grade S treasure. To get the probability of successfully restoring a wave sweeper AND getting it to Rank S, you multiply the two together.
  
  So, in the base case, you have 25% * 0.4% = 0.1%
  Blue crystal is 30% * 0.4% = 0.13%
  Red crystal is 45% * 0.4% = 0.18%
• Kenero wrote on 2015-06-24 19:38

  Quote from X;1279854:

  That's what I said xD
  
  1/4 = 25% base, 30% blue, 45% red.
  
  Restoration success is independent of item grade rates. Regardless of success, you have a 0.4% chance to obtain a grade S treasure. To get the probability of successfully restoring a wave sweeper AND getting it to Rank S, you multiply the two together.
  
  So, in the base case, you have 25% * 0.4% = 0.1%
  Blue crystal is 30% * 0.4% = 0.13%
  Red crystal is 45% * 0.4% = 0.18%

  
  
  I should have hoarded all the grade A and grade S falias treasures back in the day. Ohohoho
  
  Luckily I kept the grade S wavesweeper and the Uaithine.
• Tiwo wrote on 2015-06-24 19:46
  what are the odds of getting an ideal wave sweeper in the first place?
• Darkboy132 wrote on 2015-06-24 19:51
  What's the point of Wave Sweeper at all? It's obsoleted by March Song.