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cheesehugs wrote on 2014-03-18 18:08
I'd like to collect data about the Mabinogi population's usage of reforges to form probabilities for future use.
If possible, please answer any group of questions with exact numbers (if you do not remember how many, then it may be best not to answer)
Fine Reforging Any Equipment
How many Fine Reforges did you use?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 3 -> Rank 2?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 2 -> Rank 1?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 3 -> Rank 1?
Of those, how many times did equipment at Rank 1 get a Rank-Up Cut-scene?
Of those, how many times did equipment not rank up at Rank 3?
Of those, how many times did equipment not rank up at Rank 2?
Of those, while Equipment was Rank 1, how many times did equipment not have a Cut-scene?
Of those, while Equipment was Rank 1, how many times did you not get the reforge you wanted? Specify which reforge.
Credne Reforging Any Equipment
How many Credne Reforges did you use?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from 1 line to 2 lines?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from 2 lines to 3 lines?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from 1 to 3 lines?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 3 -> Rank 2?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 2 -> Rank 1?
Of those, how many times did equipment go from Rank 3 -> Rank 1?
Of those, how many times did equipment at Rank 1 get a Rank-Up Cut-scene?
Of those, how many times did equipment not gain any lines, nor rank up at Rank 3?
Of those, how many times did equipment not gain any lines, nor rank up at Rank 2?
Of those, while equipment was at Rank 1, how many times did equipment not gain any lines, nor obtain a Cut-scene?
Reforging Weapons that can get Elemental Reforges
How many Fine Reforges did you use?
How many Credne Reforges did you use?
With Fine Reforges at Rank 3, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
With Fine Reforges at Rank 2, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
With Fine Reforges at Rank 1, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
With Credne Reforges at Rank 3, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
With Credne Reforges at Rank 2, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
With Credne Reforges at Rank 1, how many times did you see an elemental reforge (If you had multiple elementals in one reforge group, count each elemental line as one time)?
Commerce Reforging
How many Commerce Reforge did you use?
Of those, how many did you use on a G15 Bassanio, Shylock, Antonio, or Portia Wear?
Of those, how many did you use on something else?
How many times did a Commerce Speed reforge come up on a G15 wear?
How many times did a Commerce Speed reforge come up on a non-G15 wear?
How many times did you not get a Commerce Speed reforge at all on a G15 wear while using a commerce tool?
How many times did you not get a Commerce Speed reforge at all on a non-G15 wear while using a commerce tool?
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Aubog007 wrote on 2014-03-18 18:10
I don't keep track of reforging, only thing i keep track of is how much of a waste of money it is.
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Syliara wrote on 2014-03-18 18:16
Quote from Aubog007;1207788:
I don't keep track of reforging, only thing i keep track of is how much of a waste of money it is.
Pretty much this, i normally try and keep my count out of my head unless its a stupid amount like with my avenger accessory...
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Adrianblade wrote on 2014-03-18 18:20
I wouldn't try this is I were you. It might put into people's heads that they will definitely get a rank up after "x" number of times. Or that they will definitely get "x" reforge or "y" reforge at "x" or "y" level after "x" tries. Also most people I know just spam reforges hoping for the best.
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cheesehugs wrote on 2014-03-18 18:43
Quote from Adrianblade;1207792:
I wouldn't try this is I were you. It might put into people's heads that they will definitely get a rank up after "x" number of times. Or that they will definitely get "x" reforge or "y" reforge at "x" or "y" level after "x" tries. Also most people I know just spam reforges hoping for the best.
Not if I make clear the confidence level of the statistics I present, besides, information can help us all, I understand most people will not provide any information, but it does not hurt to try to obtain data from those who are willing.
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Jake wrote on 2014-03-18 18:50
Quote from cheesehugs;1207794:
Not if I make clear the confidence level of the statistics I present, besides, information can help us all, I understand most people will not provide any information, but it does not hurt to try to obtain data from those who are willing.
I don't think your issue will be the unwillingness of people sharing the data but the lack of data due to almost nobody keeping track of such specific criteria when reforging. I could answer maybe 2 of these but the other ones are way too specific to give any factual input
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cheesehugs wrote on 2014-03-18 18:55
Quote from Jake;1207795:
I don't think your issue will be the unwillingness of people sharing the data but the lack of data due to almost nobody keeping track of such specific criteria when reforging. I could answer maybe 2 of these but the other ones are way too specific to give any factual input
I believe most people don't ever record this data when they do not know of anyone wanting the data, but since I'm just presenting this as a source of
possible retrieval, I think the amount of people recording data when reforging will increase even by a little. I'm fine if you guys are unwilling, but I've already got friends and guild-mates willing to keep tally, all I ask is for those of you who have the time, to do so for some help in reaching the true probabilities. Thank you :)
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Syliara wrote on 2014-03-18 18:57
I suppose I can keep an eye on it next time i reforge, but I dont know when I will plan on reforging for elementals or trying to rank up any time soon. I think the only thing I plan to reforge in the near future is my body for r1 crash shot fragments and my bars for r1 w/e but it looks like ur looking more for elemental for the specific reforges.
I can however answer the commerce reforge one, for my portia it was already r1 used one commerce reforge for level 17 commerce speed.
Also for one weapon (pre r1 hlc) i remember reforge for 3 lines it took 9 crednes to get 3 lines from 0. Within that 9 I also got elemental 5 level after 2 crednes.
Knight lance 1 line r2 used crednes got no extra lines but obtained elemental 4 level.
Pre r1 hlc used 3 fines got elemental 5 level.
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Jake wrote on 2014-03-18 18:57
Quote from cheesehugs;1207796:
I believe most people don't ever record this data when they do not know of anyone wanting the data, but since I'm just presenting this as a source of possible retrieval, I think the amount of people recording data when reforging will increase even by a little. I'm fine if you guys are unwilling, but I've already got friends and guild-mates willing to keep tally, all I ask is for those of you who have the time, to do so. Thank you.
Fair enough, I guess new data is just as good as old data, I mean it's all data after all. That being said I'll try and remember to do so as people decide to sell reforges
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k1nsoo wrote on 2014-03-18 18:59
Don't think these data are good enough to make a 'probability' chart - you cant really measure someone's luck.
Anyways ill post some here:
HLB - 47 reforges from r2 to r1; 76th for ice 5, 94th for fire 6
Bhafel - 70 reforges from r3 to r1; 110th for lightning 5, 130th for fire 6
Dowra - 55 reforges from r3 to r1; 90th for dual gun 18
Taunes - 20 reforges from r3 to r1; 32th for dual gun 20
Control Bar - 35 reforges from r3 to r1; 43th for act7 lvl20
Bonebreaker - can't remember but took me about 100 reforges for fire 6
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cheesehugs wrote on 2014-03-18 19:00
Quote from Jake;1207798:
Fair enough, I guess new data is just as good as old data, I mean it's all data after all. That being said I'll try and remember to do so as people decide to sell reforges
Thank you very much !
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Gaby5011 wrote on 2014-03-18 19:16
I only remember my alt's HLC
r1 - 0 line
1 cred for r1 2 lines
1 fine for fire 5
For my Savage Ice wand, about 40ish for r3 --> r1.
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Syr wrote on 2014-03-18 20:33
Quote from k1nsoo;1207799:
HLB - 47 reforges from r2 to r1; 76th for ice 5, 94th for fire 6
Bhafel - 70 reforges from r3 to r1; 110th for lightning 5, 130th for fire 6
Dowra - 55 reforges from r3 to r1; 90th for dual gun 18
Taunes - 20 reforges from r3 to r1; 32th for dual gun 20
Control Bar - 35 reforges from r3 to r1; 43th for act7 lvl20
Bonebreaker - can't remember but took me about 100 reforges for fire 6
This makes me want to run very far far away from reforges.
I recall I went from 1 to 3 lines and obtained rank 2 on my Phoenix Fire Wand with two Crednes.
Bracer Knuckles took four Crednes to get from one line to three lines.
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Jake wrote on 2014-03-18 20:38
Quote from Syr;1207815:
This makes me want to run very far far away from reforges.
I recall I went from 1 to 3 lines and obtained rank 2 on my Phoenix Fire Wand with two Crednes.
Bracer Knuckles took four Crednes to get from one line to three lines.
That's funny because most would consider the numbers he posted as lucky
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Howhurl wrote on 2014-03-18 20:51
I wouldn't even bother gathering reforging stats. The rng gods meddles too much in these matters. I've gotten r1 3line shieldess charge hat from r3-r1 with 1 cred and 9 fines, 5 creds and 9 fines for r1 3 line ice 6 range 7 ego. Then there's my hlb, 105 fines for fire 5, and 100+ on my knuckles with no ele whatsoever, not even ele 1 on r1.